[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 22 09:30:54 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              88/32              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 21 September. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk: 2871, 
2872 and 2873. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low 
on 22-24 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph data. On 21 September the solar wind speed 
range was 300 km/s to 360 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 
3-10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-8 
nT. Solar wind parameters may become disturbed on 22 September 
with the arrival of the 18 September CME. A mild to moderate 
increase in the solar wind speed is expected on 23 September 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21201423
      Cocos Island         5   11101322
      Darwin               8   21201423
      Townsville           9   21211423
      Learmonth            9   21211423
      Alice Springs        8   11201423
      Gingin               8   21101423
      Canberra             5   10101313
      Hobart               7   11101423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   10001422
      Casey               10   33200423
      Mawson              24   42101645

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Sep    11    Unsettled
24 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for 21-22 Sep. On UT day 21 September, geomagnetic 
conditions in the Australian region were quiet to active. In 
the Antarctic region, quiet to storm levels were observed. The 
18 September CME may arrive at the end of 21 September or on 
22 September, causing active to minor storm conditions. An increase 
in the geomagnetic activity is likely on 23 September due to 
coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 21 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 22-24 
September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Sep    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions were 
observed in the Northern Australian region during local day. 
MUFs in the Australian region on 22-24 September are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    25300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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