[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 11 09:31:35 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Low Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts None expected Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 September with a
single low level C-class flare. There are currently six numbered
regions on the visible disk with three large Beta magnetic class
regions; 2866, 2868 and 2869 in the SW quadrant. These regions
remained relatively stable and quiet over the period. Regions
2863 and 2864 showed some decay and are currently approaching
the west limb while region 2870 remained a simple Alpha class.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on UT days 11-13
September with a chance of isolated M-class flares due to the
complexity of ARs 2866, 2868 and 2869 . No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past
24 hours(gap in satellite imagery between 10/1012-1624UT). On
UT day 10 September, the solar wind speed showed a slight enhancement
but remained under 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 12
nT and the north-south component (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly at background to
slightly enhanced levels on UT days 11-13 September. Minor enhancements
in the solar wind parameters may be observed during the second
half of the UT day 11 September due to the possible arrival of
the 08 September CME. A small coronal hole in northern hemisphere
may slightly enhance the solar wind on 13 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22311122
Cocos Island 5 12211122
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville 7 22321222
Learmonth 7 22321222
Alice Springs 6 12311122
Gingin 7 32211132
Canberra 4 12210112
Hobart 5 12310112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 02100011
Casey 10 33311133
Mawson 22 34411255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1111 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
12 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled.
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 10 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. Minor
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 11-13
with possible active periods due to a possible weak impact from
the 08 September CME and influence of weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 9
September and is current for 9-11 Sep. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 10 September were mostly near predicted monthly
values. Periods of mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the
Cocos Island region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT days 11-13 September are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 97100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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