[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 9 09:30:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 September- three
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C8 flare from
region 2866. This flare peaked at 08/1730 UT. There are currently
five numbered regions on the visible disk. Solar activity is
expected to be at low levels on UT days 09 to 11 September with
the possibility of isolated M-class activity. On UT day 08 September,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 360 to 435 km/s, the
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were
3 to 12 nT and +10/-9 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed
may be expected to stay mostly at background levels for the next
two UT days (09 to 10 September) with a small possibility of
minor enhancements on 10 September due to a possible connection
with a coronal hole in the south-west region. Minor to mild enhancements
in the solar wind parameters may be possible during the second
half of the UT day 11 September due to a possible weak impact
of a CME from region 2864 that was associated with a C2.3 flare
that started late on 07 September and peaked at 0009/08 September
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 21243210
Cocos Island 7 31232210
Darwin 8 21243210
Townsville 12 22344211
Learmonth 8 32233210
Alice Springs 8 22233211
Gingin 10 21234320
Canberra 10 21244210
Hobart 12 21254210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 21365110
Casey 12 33333321
Mawson 29 53243455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1012 1234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 7 Quiet with some unsettled periods
11 Sep 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: On UT day 08 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian and the Antarctic regions were predominantly quiet
to active with 4 minor storm periods recorded in the Antarctic
region. For UT days 09 to 10 September, global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
on 10 September due to coronal hole effects. There is some possibility
of geomagnetic activity rising to active levels on 11 September
due to a possible weak impact of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09 to 11 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 08 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of mildly
depressed MUFs in the Northern Australian region and mildly enhanced
MUFs in the Southern Australian region were observed. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT days 09 to 11 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 13.2 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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