[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 1 09:30:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 31 August.
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk.
AR 2860 still retains a beta-ganmma magnitic complexity but showed
further decrease in area while AR 2859 remained simple and inactive.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on UT days, 01-03
September with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare from
AR2860. SOHO imagery observed a fast SW directed CME around 31/1236UT,
unlikely to have any earth directed component. No other earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery.
On UT day 31 August, the solar wind speed was slightly enhanced,
between 410-320 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT
and the north-south component (Bz) was in the range -/+ 4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be at enhanced levels over
the next three days, 01-03 September due to influence of 28 August
CME activity and weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12111100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 3 12111101
Learmonth 3 11211200
Alice Springs 2 12111100
Gingin 2 11111100
Canberra 2 12111100
Hobart 3 12212100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11223000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 21 53333225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2321 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
02 Sep 18 Quiet to Active with a chance of an isolated
minor storm period.
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day 31 August. Minor storm periods observed in the
Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to active on UT days 01-02 September, with a chance
of an isolated minor storm period due to influence of 28 August
CME activity and weak coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 03 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 31 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT days 01-03 September are expected to be slightly
depressed to near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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