[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 31 10:31:21 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 106/55 106/55 104/53
COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, solar activity was low with just
a few C-class flares produced by AR2891. AR2887 that produced
the X1 flare on 28 October has decayed slightly, but is still
magnetically complex and could produce more C-class flares and
an isolated M-class flare. Currently there are 7 numbered regions
on the visible disc. Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate on UT days 31 October to 2 November, mostly because
of the flaring potential of AR2891 and AR2887. There were no
Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images.
On UT day 30 October, the solar wind speed followed an increasing
trend from 295 km/s up to 390 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked
at 12 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +7/-11
nT. The IMF Bz component has been mostly southwards since 18UT.
On UT day 31 October, the solar wind speed is expected to be
elevated to strong levels due to the impending arrival of the
28 October X1 flare CME. Then the solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to slightly or moderately enhanced levels on UT days
1-2 November as CME effects fade. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 30/1740UT, which can
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36
hours. Region 2882 (N15) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 30 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22211233
Cocos Island 6 12111223
Darwin 7 22111233
Townsville 8 22211233
Learmonth 8 22211233
Alice Springs 7 21201233
Gingin 7 21201224
Canberra 6 22101223
Hobart 6 22201223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 21300122
Casey 17 45321233
Mawson 14 23321235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 50 Active to major storms with a chance of a severe
storm
01 Nov 20 Unsettled to minor storms
02 Nov 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 30-31 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 30 October. In the Antarctic
region, mostly quiet to active conditions were observed with
one minor storm period. On UT day 31 October, active to major
storm levels are expected with a chance of a severe storm due
to the 28 October X1 flare CME. Unsettled to minor storm levels
are expected on UT day 1 November, followed by quiet to unsettled
conditions on UT day 2 November as CME effects fade. Auroras
may be visible from Tasmania, the coastline of Victoria and the
southwest coast of Western Australia on the local night of 31
October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1730UT 28/10, Ended at 1335UT 30/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 30/10, Ended at 1505UT 30/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2050UT 30/10, Ended at 2120UT 30/10
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 28/10, Ended at 0405UT 30/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair
01 Nov Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly
to moderately degraded on UT days 31 October to 1 November, due
to the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. Then mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT day 2 November.
Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to possible M-class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. SWS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 28 was issued on 29 October and is current for 30-31
Oct. MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Moderate enhancements were
observed in the Cocos Island region. Some mild enhancements were
observed in the the Northern Australian region during the local
night. Also there were some mild depressions in the Niue Island
region during the local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions
are likely on UT days 31 October to 1 November, due to the predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity. Then MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 2 November. Shortwave
fadeouts may happen due to possible M-class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 28100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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