[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 13 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 14 10:31:18 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 13 October, with two
weak C-class flares and few B-class flares. There are currently
four numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Very low to
low solar activity is expected for UT days 14-16 October with
a chance of C-class flares. Region 2882 triggered a CME first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 13/1100 UT. Preliminary
investigation suggests that this CME is unlikely to impact the
Earth. The 12 October CME may cause a glancing blow on Earth
during the first half of UT day 15 October. On UT day 13 October,
the solar wind speed declined gradually from 450 km/s to 380
km/s in response to the waning effects of the 9 October halo
CME. The total IMF (Bt) was steady near 5 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +2/-2 nT over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near background
to mildly elevated levels for the next three days (14-16 October).
The mild enhancements are due to small patchy equatorial coronal
holes and the possible glancing blow from the 12 October CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21000101
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 21000101
Townsville 2 21000111
Learmonth 3 22100201
Alice Springs 1 11000100
Gingin 2 21000101
Hobart 2 -2111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 22122000
Casey 6 23221112
Mawson 12 32211244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 48 5656 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet on UT day 13 October. In the Antarctic region the
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels. On
UT day 14-15 October, the geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet with a chance of being unsettled to active.
The anticipated disturbed conditions are due to patchy equatorial
coronal holes and the possible glancing blow from the 12 Oct
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal to poor on 13
October, as an aftermath of the recent disturbed conditions.
Degraded conditions are expected to continue in the high latitude
region on the 14 and 15 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13-14 Oct. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 13 October were mostly near mildly depressed levels in
most regions. These mild depressions were the aftermath of the
recent disturbed conditions caused by the 9 October CME. MUFs
are likely to remain mildly depressed today 14 October. MUFs
are expected to gradually recover towards the monthly predicted
level from UT day 15 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 16.9 p/cc Temp: 83200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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