[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 12 10:30:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 86/29 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 11 October. Only B-class
flares were observed. Very low to low solar activity is expected
for UT days 11-13 October with a slight chance of C-class flares.
The 9 October halo CME is expected to arrive at Earth today (UT
day 12 October). No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph data. On UT day 11 October, the solar
wind speed was near its nominal levels, varying between 300 km/s
and 400 km/s. These mild enhancements are possibly due to patchy
equatorial coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) varied from 3 nT
to 10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +6/-9
nT. IMF(Bz) was mostly southward throughout the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to reach moderate to high levels today,
UT day 12 October, in response to the arrival of the 9 October
CME combined with the patchy equatorial coronal hole effects.
The enhanced solar wind speed is expected to continue on UT day
13 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Cocos Island 7 22222132
Darwin 8 32222222
Townsville 10 22233232
Learmonth 8 22222232
Alice Springs 8 22222232
Gingin 12 22233333
Hobart 10 22333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 22464121
Casey 23 55433233
Mawson 26 34243364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 1111 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
13 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 10 October
and is current for 11-12 Oct. The geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day
11 October. In the Antarctic region the geomagnetic conditions
were at quiet to storm levels. The observed disturbed conditions
were due to the mildly elevated solar wind speed and the prolonged
IMF Bz conditions. On UT day 12 October, the geomagnetic conditions
are expected to reach minor storm levels with a chance of major
storms. This is in response to the expected arrival of the 9
October CME combined with effects from the equatorial coronal
hole. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue
on UT day 13 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal on 11 October.
For 12 October, HF propagation conditions are expected to be
normal before the expected increase in geomagnetic activity;
then the conditions may degrade to mostly to fair levels. Degraded
conditions are also likely for 13 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Some mild depressions were
observed over the Cocos island and the Southern Australian Region.
MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values on
UT day 12 October. Mild to moderately depressed MUFs are possible
on 13-14 October in response to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 16.6 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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