[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 4 10:31:11 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 October, with
one C-class flare at 03/0722 UT from active region 2877. AR2877
is located near the west limb and will soon rotate to the farside
of the sun. There are currently three other numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. Very low to low solar activity
is expected for UT days 4-6 October with a remote chance of M-class
flares. The 30 September CME from N23E47 associated with a filament
eruption may cause a glancing blow at Earth today. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours. On UT day 3 October,
solar wind parameters were near background to mildly enhanced
level. Overall, it exhibited a gradual declining trend. The wind
speed range was mostly 370-430 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt)
was 5 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +1/-3
nT and was mostly weakly southward during the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for
the next three UT days, with a chance of mild enhancements today
(UT day 04 October) in response to possible arrival of 30 September
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12123111
Cocos Island 3 10121210
Darwin 5 12123111
Townsville 6 12123122
Learmonth 5 02023211
Alice Springs 4 11023111
Gingin 6 02123222
Canberra 4 01123111
Hobart 5 02123111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 01134010
Casey 10 33323211
Mawson 22 22331256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 0014 4201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 5 Quiet
06 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 3 October, geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic region, quiet
to active levels were observed. On UT days 4-6 October, mostly
quiet conditions are likely with possible isolated unsettled
to active periods today ()4 October) due to possible arrival
of the 30 September CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 3 October.
Normal conditions are expected for the next three UT days. There
is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on 4-6 October although some mild
depressions are possible at times on 4-5 October due to the forecasted
unsettled conditions. There is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts
(radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 83700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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