[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 1 09:31:12 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 30 September with a 
C1.2 flare at 1249 UT from AR2877. AR2877 (S19W51) and AR2881 
(N17W52) show decay, AR2880 (N29E32) appears stable and AR2871 
(S28W80) will rotate off the disc on 01 October. Low solar activity 
is expected 01-03 October with a small chance of M flaring. There 
was a filament eruption from N23E47 around 1215 UT but there 
appears to be no related CME. No Earth directed CMEs have been 
observed in the available images. On UT day 30 September, solar 
wind parameters were near background levels until around 1400 
UT then steadily became disturbed. The wind speed was mostly 
below 400 km/s before the disturbance, but increased to peak 
at 540 km/s at 2243 UT. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 14 nT around 
1820 UT. The north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +8/-9 nT. 
The solar wind is likely to be moderately disturbed in the first 
half of 01 October beginning to return to background levels over 
the rest of the day. Solar wind parameters are likely to be at 
background levels on 02-03 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21112332
      Cocos Island         5   11111232
      Darwin               7   12111332
      Townsville           8   22112332
      Learmonth            7   21112332
      Alice Springs        7   12112332
      Gingin               9   21111343
      Canberra             6   21112232
      Hobart               7   21102332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     6   21011332
      Casey               11   13321333
      Mawson              12   21021353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1001 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    21    Quiet to Active. Isolated minor storm period 
                possible.
02 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 28 September 
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. On UT day 30 September, geomagnetic 
conditions in the Australian region were quiet to unsettled. 
In the Antarctic region, quiet to minor storm levels were observed. 
The 28 September CME seems to have arrived around 1400 UT. Unsettled 
to active conditions with a chance of an isolated minor storm 
period are likely in the first half of 01 October then activity 
should subside. On UT day 02-03 October, mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 30 September. 
Some mild MUF depressions are possible at times on 01-02 October. 
Normal conditions are expected on 03 October. There is a small 
chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some nighttime 
enhancements. Pre-dawn depressions to 30% were observed at Darwin. 
MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values although 
some mild depressions are possible at times on 01-02 October. 
MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on 03 October. 
There is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    89400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list