[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 1 09:31:12 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 30 September with a
C1.2 flare at 1249 UT from AR2877. AR2877 (S19W51) and AR2881
(N17W52) show decay, AR2880 (N29E32) appears stable and AR2871
(S28W80) will rotate off the disc on 01 October. Low solar activity
is expected 01-03 October with a small chance of M flaring. There
was a filament eruption from N23E47 around 1215 UT but there
appears to be no related CME. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed in the available images. On UT day 30 September, solar
wind parameters were near background levels until around 1400
UT then steadily became disturbed. The wind speed was mostly
below 400 km/s before the disturbance, but increased to peak
at 540 km/s at 2243 UT. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 14 nT around
1820 UT. The north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +8/-9 nT.
The solar wind is likely to be moderately disturbed in the first
half of 01 October beginning to return to background levels over
the rest of the day. Solar wind parameters are likely to be at
background levels on 02-03 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 21112332
Cocos Island 5 11111232
Darwin 7 12111332
Townsville 8 22112332
Learmonth 7 21112332
Alice Springs 7 12112332
Gingin 9 21111343
Canberra 6 21112232
Hobart 7 21102332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 21011332
Casey 11 13321333
Mawson 12 21021353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 21 Quiet to Active. Isolated minor storm period
possible.
02 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. On UT day 30 September, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet to unsettled.
In the Antarctic region, quiet to minor storm levels were observed.
The 28 September CME seems to have arrived around 1400 UT. Unsettled
to active conditions with a chance of an isolated minor storm
period are likely in the first half of 01 October then activity
should subside. On UT day 02-03 October, mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 30 September.
Some mild MUF depressions are possible at times on 01-02 October.
Normal conditions are expected on 03 October. There is a small
chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some nighttime
enhancements. Pre-dawn depressions to 30% were observed at Darwin.
MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values although
some mild depressions are possible at times on 01-02 October.
MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on 03 October.
There is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 89400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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