[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 23 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 24 10:31:19 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 23 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar
disc. AR2896 (S18W46) and AR2897 (N15W31) are both stable and
quiet and there is a new region 2898 (S23E48). Solar activity
is expected to be very low on UT days 24-26 November. There is
a large filament at CMD near S25 that continues to be monitored
in H-alpha images. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph data. On UT day 23 November, the solar
wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 540 km/s down to
475 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to continue declining on UT day 24 November to slightly
enhanced levels. On UT day 25 November the solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels. Then the solar wind is
expected to increase again to slightly enhanced levels on UT
day 26 November, due to small equatorial coronal holes moving
into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12122211
Cocos Island 4 11121211
Darwin 5 12122211
Townsville 6 22122221
Learmonth 7 22122322
Alice Springs 5 12122211
Gingin 7 22122322
Canberra 6 12132211
Hobart 7 13232211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 23153411
Casey 22 35532333
Mawson 38 44243665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3300 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 5 Quiet
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 23 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly quiet, as coronal hole effects
faded. Quiet to storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
on UT days 24-25 November. Then quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on UT day 26 November, due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 23 November were
mostly normal with some mild degradations. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions with some mild degradations are expected on UT days
24-26 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild
depressions in the Northern Australian and Southern Australian
regions during the local day. There were also some mild depressions
in the Niue Island region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 24-26 November with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 382000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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