[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 15 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 16 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: On UT day 15 November, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There are currently three numbered regions
on the visible disk: AR2894, AR2895 and AR2896. Solar activity
is expected to be very low on 16-18 November with a chance of
C-class flares. A filament eruption was observed at 15/0118 UT
from ~N40W30 in the SDO 304 and GONG HALPHA Learmonth imagery,
however no subsequent CME was observed in the LASCO C2 imagery.
No other possible CME sources were observed in the available
satellite imagery. On UT day 15 November, the solar wind speed
was near its nominal levels till 15/1500 UT and from thereafter
enhanced gradually to mildly elevated levels, in response to
a Southern coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the
solar disk. The total IMF (Bt) peaked to 22 nT at 15/2000 UT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was mostly +18/-13
nT. Solar wind speed is expected to further enhance to moderately
elevated levels today (UT day 16 November) as the coronal hole
effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 01102234
Cocos Island 8 01101144
Darwin 7 01112134
Townsville 8 11112234
Learmonth 9 01102244
Alice Springs 6 01102233
Gingin 7 00102234
Canberra 5 00102133
Hobart 7 11212233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 00102232
Casey 13 33322234
Mawson 24 22112266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 12 Unsettled
17 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 15 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed conditions
are in response to the southern coronal hole effects. Conditions
are expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance of isolated
active periods on UT 16 November as the coronal hole effects
persist. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be observed
on 17 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (16 to 18 November) with the possibility
of minor MUF depressions on UT day 16-17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed
levels due to very low levels of solar ionising flux. Depressed
MUF conditions are expected to continue for the next three days
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 11.9 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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