[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 10:31:13 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0254UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 97/44 97/44 95/41
COMMENT: On UT day 02 November, solar activity was moderate with
one M1.7/1F flare at 0301 UT from AR2891. Currently there are
6 numbered regions on the visible disc, three that are spot groups.
The most active regions have been AR 2887 (S27W72, Hax/alpha)
and AR2891 (N16W07, Dai/beta-gamma). There were two CME events
on 02 November. AR 2891 produced a halo CME with the M1.7 flare
and there was a CME from the vicinity of AR2887 due to a filament
eruption, first observed at 02/1236 UT. Analysis indicates an
impact from the halo CME. On UT day 02 November, the solar wind
speed increased from 438 km/s to peak at 645 km/s at 5131 UT.
The wind speed remains above 600 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked
at 13 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +5/-9
nT. On UT day 03 November, the solar wind speed is expected to
remain moderately enhanced. On 04 November, impacts from CMEs
on 31 October to 02 November are expected to moderately disturb
solar wind parameters into 05 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 32233221
Cocos Island 6 22222211
Darwin 7 22132221
Townsville 9 32233221
Learmonth 11 33233222
Alice Springs 8 32232221
Gingin 10 32233222
Canberra 12 33243221
Hobart 13 33343221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 18 33255121
Casey 24 45533333
Mawson 33 46443345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2311 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 13 Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active period possible.
04 Nov 27 Quiet to Minor Storm
05 Nov 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 1 November
and is current for 4 Nov only. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. In the Antarctic
region quiet to major storm levels were observed. Conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 03 November although
an isolated active period is possible. Geomagnetic activity expected
to increase on 04 November to active to minor storm levels due
to coronal mass ejections observed on 31 October-02 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on UT days 03 November. Mildly degraded conditions are
expected on 04-05 November for mid to high latitudes due to expected
geomagnetic activity from recent coronal mass ejections.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 1
November and is current for 1-3 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 02 November were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some mild depressions during nighttime and after local dawn.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly
depressed on 03 November. Moderate depressions likely on 04-05
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 66000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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