[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 1 10:31:22 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 103/52 102/50 100/48
COMMENT: On UT day 31 October, solar activity was low with just
a few weak C-class flares produced by AR2891 and AR2887 that
have both slightly decayed. Currently there are 7 numbered regions
on the visible disc, including the new region AR2893 on the northeast
limb. Solar activity is expected to be low on UT days 1-3 November,
with a small chance of a M-class flare from AR2891 and AR2887.
There was a weak CME towards the east in Lasco images around
31/08 UT that was most likely produced by the C2.9 flare at 0706
UT from AR2891. Preliminary analysis indicates that this weak
CME is unlikely to be geoeffective. There were no other CMEs
observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day 31 October,
the solar wind speed followed an increasing trend from 370 km/s
up to 465 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked at 13 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +5/-11 nT. The solar wind speed
jumped from 378 km/s to 422 km/s at 31/0914 UT, with a corresponding
increase in density, that was most likely the later than expected
arrival of the 28 October X1 flare CME. The IMF Bz component
was mostly southwards during 1026-1325 UT. On UT day 1 November,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly enhanced
due to persistent CME effects. Then the solar wind speed is expected
to decrease to background levels on UT days 2-3 November as CME
effects fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22034223
Cocos Island 8 12033223
Darwin 8 12033223
Townsville 12 12034333
Learmonth 13 22044233
Alice Springs 9 22033223
Gingin 14 22035233
Canberra 10 12034223
Hobart 13 22135223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 22016322
Casey 14 34233233
Mawson 28 34335355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 2221 0234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 20 Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with a possible
active periods
02 Nov 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
03 Nov 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet to minor storm levels on UT day 31 October. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to minor storm levels were observed with one major
storm period. On UT day 1 November, mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected with possible active periods due to persistent
CME effects. Then on UT days 2-3 November, mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected as CME effects fade.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1730UT 28/10, Ended at 1335UT 30/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 30/10, Ended at 1505UT 30/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2050UT 30/10, Ended at 2120UT 30/10
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 28/10, Ended at 0405UT 30/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on UT days 1-3 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 30 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 31 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild depressions
in the Southern Australian and Niue Island regions during the
local day. Some moderate enhancements were observed in the Cocos
Island region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 1-3 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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