[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 25 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 24 May
with just a series of B-class flares from active region AR 2824
(Cki-Beta), that has started to decay after producing multiple
M1 and C-class flares earlier. There is a second active region
on the visible disk AR 2825 in the North East quadrant. There
were no Earth directed CMEs in the coronagraph images recorded
on UT day 24 May. There was a filament eruption observed in SDO
images around 24/0427 UT near S25W20. However, no CME was visible
due to this filament eruption. Solar activity is expected to
be very low to low with a small chance of M-class flares for
the next three UT days 25-27 May. On the UT day 24 May, the solar
wind speed continued on a declining trend from 390 km/s down
to 330 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be initially near its background levels on UT day
25 May. Then the solar wind speed is expected to be elevated
to strongly enhanced levels during the second half of UT day
25 May and remain enhanced on UT days 26 -27 May when the 22-23
May CMEs arrive at Earth. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 24/1545UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 0 11000000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 10110000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Gingin 0 00010000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 10010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12210000
Mawson 5 42111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0101 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 35 Quiet to minor storm
26 May 40 Active to major storm
27 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 23 May and
is current for 25-26 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 24 May. Mostly quiet levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to minor storm levels
are expected on UT day 25 May and active to major storms are
possible on UT day 26 May, when the 22-23 May CMEs arrive at
Earth. The major storms on 26 May are possible because of the
compounding effect of multiple CMEs. Then unsettled to active
conditions with possible minor storms are expected on UT day
27 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
27 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 25 May with some possible enhancements. Moderate to
strong degradation in HF propagation conditions could occur on
UT days 26-27 May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 22
May and is current for 23-25 May. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 24 May were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some minor depressions in the Niue Island region during the local
day. There were also some minor enhancements in the Southern
Australian region during the local night. Normal HF conditions
may be expected for most parts of the UT day 24 May. Mild to
strong MUF depressions may occur on UT days 26-27 May due to
the expected increase in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 86200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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