[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 16 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 May. AR2822 
(Hax/Alpha) and AR2823 (Axx/Alpha) decayed further. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low for the next three days, 16-18 May. 
The solar wind was mildly enhanced in the first half of 15 May 
with speed peaking at 479 km/s, the IMF (Bt) peaking at 10 nT, 
and a north-south IMF component (Bz) range of +8/-6 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be near background levels on 16 May 
then become moderately elevated on 17-18 May due to coronal hole 
wind streams. There is the chance the slow 13 May CME may impact 
on the 17 May, while the 14 May CME is expected to arrive on 
18 May; only weak effects are expected.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22212001
      Cocos Island         2   21211000
      Darwin               3   22211001
      Townsville           5   22322001
      Learmonth            3   22212000
      Alice Springs        4   22212001
      Gingin               4   21212011
      Canberra             3   21212000
      Hobart               3   21212000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
      Macquarie Island     4   11322000
      Casey                8   33322111
      Mawson              23   52332226

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1100 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     7    Quiet
17 May    15    Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated Minor 
                Storm period.
18 May    18    Unsettled to Active. Possible isolated Minor 
                Storm periods.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 May and 
is current for 17-18 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet on UT day 15 May and at quiet to major storm 
levels at high southern latitudes. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on 16 May and initially on 17 
May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected later on 17 
May and into 18 May, with a chance of isolated minor storm periods 
due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 16-17 May. Some possible degradations on 18 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
      during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
18 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 May were 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced with some mild depressions 
occurring during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to mildly depressed over 16-18 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    37600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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