[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 21 issued 2334 UT on 19 Mar 2021

Sat Mar 20 10:34:28 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 March. There 
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, 2810(N21E26). 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three 
UT days 20-22 March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph images. A small filament eruption was 
observed in H-alpha Learmonth in the SE quadrant around 19/03UT. 
No associated CME signature was observed in the available coronagraph 
images. The solar wind speed range was 290km/s to 330 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-7nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
was -5/+3 nT. Solar wind speed started increasing at 19/2050UT 
most likely due to the arrival of the CIR associated with a negative 
polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected to continue 
increasing today, 20 March due to CIR and HSS from the coronal 
hole. Solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on UT days 
21-22 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100101
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Townsville           2   2111000-
      Learmonth            3   12111011
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Gingin               2   11110110
      Canberra             1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   01222000
      Casey                5   32121111
      Mawson              19   44211345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2110 0110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    25    Quiet to minor storm
21 Mar    20    Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods
22 Mar    15    Quiet to active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 17 March and 
is current for 19-21 Mar. Quiet conditions were observed in the 
Australian region on UT day 19 March. Mostly quiet to active 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions are 
expected to reach active to minor storm levels today, 20 March. 
Quiet to active levels are expected on 21 March with possible 
minor storm periods. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 
UT day 22 March. The forecasted disturbed conditions are due 
to a negative polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
21 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
22 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible 
on UT days 20-22 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Mar    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
21 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
22 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: On UT day 19 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed 
at times at some stations. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are 
possible on UT days 20-22 March in response to forecast geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:    26000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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