[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 10 09:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 9 June with a C3.7
flare at 0907 UT, C1.7 flare at 1150 UT and B8.7 flare at 1950
UT from just beyond the North Western limb and probably from
region 2831 that has rotated off the visible disk. The only other
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2829 (Axx-Alpha at S20W40)
that is decaying and new region 2832 (Bxo-Beta at N15E02). There
were no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 10-12
June. On UT day 9 June, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing
trend from 415 km/s down to 340 km/s due to fading coronal hole
effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 3 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay near background levels on UT days 10-12 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 0 -1000000
Darwin 2 12100100
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 2 11110200
Alice Springs 2 12100100
Gingin 2 11100210
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22100210
Mawson 5 33210110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2220 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 8 Mostly quiet
11 Jun 7 Mostly quiet
12 Jun 5 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet on UT day 9 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 10-12 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 10-12 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 9 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local night. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected on UT days 10-12 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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