[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 28 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 July. There
are two spotted regions, ARs 2846 (N26W31) and 2847 (S31W13)
on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three UT days, 28-30 July. A faint slow CME,
which was associated with a B2.5 flare at 0457 UT from AR2848
(N17W25) and a slow type II sweep, may have an earth directed
component and may result in a weak effect late on UT day 29 July.
No other earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph
images during the last 24 hours. On 26 July, the solar wind speed
was mostly 300 to 335 km/s, the IMF (Bt) peaked at 14 nT during
the late hours and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9/-2 nT. Bz and Bt increased significantly after 18 UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to show gradual minor to moderate
enhancements on UT 28 July day due to coronal hole effects. These
coronal hole effects are expected to keep solar wind stream slightly
to moderately enhanced through UT day 29 July and then gradually
decline to background levels through UT day 30 July. The modelling
of the CMEs launched 24 July indicate near misses of Earth, however,
if any impacts do eventuate, they may be expected to happen on
28 July. Another CME may have minor impact on 29 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 01121012
Cocos Island 3 11111012
Darwin 4 12121012
Townsville 4 11121013
Learmonth 4 01221112
Alice Springs 3 01121012
Gingin 2 00111111
Canberra 1 01111001
Hobart 2 01111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00011001
Casey 4 12221111
Mawson 4 21220121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 14 Quiet to active
29 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
30 Jul 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 27 July. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to active on UT day 28 July,
quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 29 July and
mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 30 July due to
coronal hole effects. There is a chance of glancing impacts on
28 July from two CMEs, which may result in isolated minor storm
periods. Another CME may have minor impact on 29 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 28-30 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 28-30 July with the possibility of minor MUF depressions
on UT day 28 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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