[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 23 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 July with just a
few weak C-class flares. Currently there are seven numbered regions
on the visible disk: AR2842, AR2844, AR2845, AR2846, AR2847,
AR2848 and AR2849. Regions 2842 and 2845 will soon rotate over
the far-side of the sun. There was a DSF observed in H-alpha
and SDO images around 22/1324 UT close to region 2848 near N17E10.
There was a westward CME observed in Lasco and Stereo-A images
around 21/2136 UT associated with a C1.3 flare from region 2845
at 21/2005, but it was not geoeffective. There were no other
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days,
23-25 July with a chance of C-class flares. On 22 July, the solar
wind speed was between 410 km/s and 485 km/s, in response to
patchy equatorial coronal hole. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-7 nT. The IMF
Bz component was mostly negative (southward) during 0310-1155
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
to slightly enhanced for the next three UT days, 23-25 July.
There is a small chance that the CME at 20/1648 UT towards the
northeast from region 2846 could cause a glancing blow at Earth
elevating the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced levels
on UT days 23-24 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 12343110
Cocos Island 6 12233010
Darwin 7 12333011
Townsville 9 12343111
Learmonth 10 22343120
Alice Springs 9 12343110
Gingin 11 12344120
Canberra 9 01443110
Hobart 12 11543110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 25 02664110
Casey 7 23232120
Mawson 23 54542240
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2201 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 15 Quiet to active
24 Jul 12 Quiet to active
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 22 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to storm levels. This was in response
to the mildly elevated solar wind speed and prolonged IMF Bz
southward condition. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 23-25 July. There
is a small chance that the CME at 20/1648 UT towards the northeast
from region 2846 could cause a glancing blow at Earth resulting
in active levels on UT days 23-24 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 23-25 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some enhancements
in the Northern Australian and Southern Australian regions during
the local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 23-25 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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