[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 21 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 90/34 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 July. Currently
there are five numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2841,
AR2842, AR2844, AR2845 and AR2846. The new region 2846 (N26E61)
produced a long duration B5.3 flare at 1626 UT and a region just
beyond the south eastern limb produced a similar long duration
B5.5 flare at 2025 UT. The B5.3 flare from AR2846 has triggered
a CME, however, this CME is not expected to impact Earth. More
updates on this event will be provided after the completion of
the model runs. There is a chance of more flare activity and
CMEs from these new regions that are just rotating over the eastern
limb. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low for the next three UT days, 21-23 July. On 20 July, the
solar wind speed followed an slow increasing trend from 420 km/s
up to 525 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-7nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels to slightly enhanced for
the next three UT days, 21-23 July. A small equatorial coronal
hole is expected to start impacting the Earth from UT day 22
July and can possibly cause some mild enhancements in the solar
wind speeds.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22331231
Cocos Island 5 11320221
Darwin 7 12331221
Townsville 9 22331231
Learmonth 9 22331232
Alice Springs 8 22330231
Gingin 9 22320332
Canberra 7 12321231
Hobart 7 12321231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 11320231
Casey 11 33331231
Mawson 33 54442256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2320 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul 7 Mostly quiet
23 Jul 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 20 July. In the and Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with the
chance of unsettled periods on UT days 21-23 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 21-23 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild MUF
depressions in the Northern Australian region during the local
day and in the Cocos Island region. There were also some enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 21-23 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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