[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 19 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 July. Currently 
there are four numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2841, 
AR2842, AR2844, and AR2845. There was a CME observed in Lasco 
images around 18/1124 UT that may have an Earth directed component 
and further analysis is required. No other Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days, 
19-21 July. On 18 July, the solar wind speed was between 370 
km/s to 410 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for the next three 
UT days, 19-21 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001100
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11101100
      Townsville           2   11111100
      Learmonth            1   10110100
      Alice Springs        0   10000100
      Gingin               1   10000200
      Canberra             0   00001100
      Hobart               1   00001200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                2   11111101
      Mawson               1   10010101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2110 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     7    Quiet
20 Jul     7    Quiet
21 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 18 July. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 19-21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 19-21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild MUF 
depressions in the Northern Australian region during the local 
day and in the Cocos Island region. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 19-21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    57100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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