[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 21 issued 0004 UT on 11 Jul 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 11 10:04:31 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 July. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed over the last 24 hours.
Currently there are three numbered regions on the visible disk:
AR 2839 (N18W39), AR 2841 (S18E43), and AR2842 (N28E74). Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 11-13 July with
a small chance of C-class flares. On 10 July, the solar wind
speed was between 310 km/s and 340 km/s by 0730UT and then showed
a gradual increase to 420 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-8 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be slightly higher than the background
levels on UT day 11 July and moderately higher on 12 and 13 July
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22110211
Cocos Island 3 21210200
Darwin 4 22110202
Townsville 5 22210212
Learmonth 5 22210212
Alice Springs 3 22100201
Gingin 3 21100211
Canberra 3 22100200
Hobart 3 22100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01000110
Casey 3 22100211
Mawson 21 54110126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2211 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 14 Quiet to active
13 Jul 16 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 10 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet with two minor storm periods. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on UT day 11 July and quiet to active levels on UT day 12 and
13 July due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 10 July were mostly near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT day 11 July. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be
expected on UT day 12 and 13 July due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jul 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT day 11 July. Minor to mild MUF depressions in the region
may be expected on UT day 12 and 13 July due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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