[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 9 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 July with several 
B-class flares from regions 2835, 2837, and 2840. Currently there 
are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2837 (N18W62), 
AR 2839 (N18W13), and AR2840 (N25W90). There were no CMEs observed 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low on UT days 9-11 July with a small chance of C-class 
flares. On 8 July, the solar wind speed was between 310 km/s 
and 330 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be near its background levels on UT day 9 July. Then 
the solar wind speed may be elevated to slightly enhanced levels 
on UT days 10-11 July due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11110000
      Townsville           2   21110001
      Learmonth            2   11210000
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Gingin               0   01100000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               0   01100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22210000
      Mawson               7   42310002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     7    Quiet
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 8 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 9 July. 
Then unsettled conditions may be observed on UT days 10-11 July 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 9-11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 8 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 9-11 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:   11.3 p/cc  Temp:    30900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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