[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 7 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 January and
expected to continue at very low levels for the next 3 UT days,
07 to 09 January. There are no active regions on the visible
disc and no Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
images. The CME of 06/4:24 UT does not seem to have any Earthward
component. On UT day 06 January, the solar wind speed initially
increased from 430 km/s to 630 km/s by around 07:00 UT and then
gradually decreased to 510 km/s by 23:00 UT. Through this day,
the total IMF (Bt) first increased from 10 nT to 17 nT by 02:30
UT and then gradually decreased to 4 nT by 23:00 UT, while the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +7/-8 nT
during this time. Solar wind parameters are expected to show
gradual weakening over the next three UT days, 07 to 09 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 33332211
Cocos Island 6 32222110
Darwin 10 33332212
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 10 33332212
Alice Springs 10 33332211
Gingin 12 43332222
Canberra 8 32332111
Hobart 10 33332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 32254220
Casey 30 55643322
Mawson 27 54533344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1110 5312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled level
in the Australian regions and quiet to minor storm levels in
the Antarctic regions on UT day 06 January. Global geomagnetic
activity may be expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled
levels with the possibility of isolated active periods through
UT day 07 January and quiet to unsettled levels through 08 January.
Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on UT day
09 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Through UT day 07 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor depressions as well
as minor enhancements. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 07 to 09 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 8 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 8 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Through UT day 07 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor depressions as well as minor enhancements. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 07 to 09 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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