[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 21 issued 2353 UT on 21 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 22 10:53:43 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 February. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR2802
and AR2803. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
for the next three UT days, 22-24 February with a small chance
of a C-class flare. The CME from an erupting filament on UT day
20 February at 1130 UT near the central meridian at southern
mid-latitudes has been modelled and could cause a glancing blow
at Earth on UT day 23 February at around 12UT. There was another
CME seen in the Lasco coronagraph images at about 21/09UT and
has been determined to be a far side / limb side event. On UT
day 21 February, the solar wind speed was at moderate levels,
varying in the range of 527 km/s to 624 km/s. This disturbed
solar wind condition is caused by a large southern polar coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT; the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative during 21/00-14UT, varying
in the range +5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
at elevated levels due to the coronal hole effects during the
next two UT days, 22-23 February and then expected to decline
back to nominal levels on UT day 24 February. The CME associated
with an erupting filament on UT day 20 February may cause some
minor enhancements in solar wind speed on UT day 23 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 32443212
Cocos Island 9 22333211
Darwin 10 32333212
Townsville 16 33443223
Learmonth 12 32433222
Alice Springs 12 22443212
Gingin 14 32344222
Canberra 13 23443212
Hobart 13 23443212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 34 33665422
Casey 26 55543223
Mawson 38 55544336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 data not available
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
23 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 21 February. Unsettled to
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to active on UT days
22-23 February, due to waning coronal hole effects and possible
arrival of the 20 February CME. Isolated minor storms are also
possible. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline gradually
to mostly quiet levels on 24 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT days 22-23 February with some mild MUF depressions
possible. The degraded conditions are due to recent geomagnetic
activity and CME on UT day 20 February from an erupting filament
that may cause a glancing blow at the Earth. Mostly normal HF
propagation conditions are expected from 24 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 1 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 21 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 22-24 February with some mild MUF depressions
possible. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 269000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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