[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 14 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 February. The
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 14-16 February. The
CME observed in STEREO imagery after 12/1354UT have been assessed
as missing Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available satellite images. A large filament in SE quadrant
is monitored for any eruption. On UT day 13 February, the solar
wind speed increased from 340 km/s to 540 km/s early UT day then
exhibited a slight decline, currently near 470 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) strengthened, reached 14 nT at 13/0212UT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-10 nT. These moderately
enhanced solar wind conditions are in response to high solar
speed streams associated with the extension of a negative southern
polar coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
enhanced on 14-15 February then begin gradually to subside from
16 February as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23233102
Cocos Island 7 22233111
Darwin 9 33233102
Learmonth 10 33233112
Alice Springs 8 23233102
Gingin 10 33233112
Canberra 7 23232102
Hobart 8 23332102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 23253201
Casey 30 46643112
Mawson 32 45434246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13 February. Storm levels observed in the Antarctic
region. The disturbed conditions were caused by the moderately
enhanced solar wind speed associated with a coronal hole. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
on UT days 14-15 December. There remains a chance of isolated
active periods today, 14 February. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for 16 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal fo fair Hf propagation conditions are expected
over the next three UT days 14-16 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values during UT day 13 February. Moderate enhancements observed
at the northern Australian region local night. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 14-16 February.
Mild depressions may be observed in response to current increased
geomagnetic activity and very low levels of solar ionising flux.
Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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