[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 6 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 February. Solar
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days,
06-08 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
satellite images. On 05 February, the solar wind speed has decreased
from 440 km/s to 390 km/s; this is in response to waning effects
of a coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) was steady, 4-5 nT, and
the Bz range was +2/-3 nT. Another coronal hole that will move
into the geoeffective position on 06 February is expected to
elevate the solar wind speed again.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22121101
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 2 12011101
Townsville 4 22121101
Learmonth 5 22122102
Alice Springs 3 22021001
Gingin 5 22122111
Canberra 2 22111000
Hobart 4 23111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 13113000
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 23 44232255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2231 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 19 Active
08 Feb 18 Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 05 February. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels
on 06 February; the expected increase is due to coronal hole
effects. On 7-8 February, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to reach active levels with possible minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next UT day, 6 February. On 7-8 February, the conditions
may degrade to fair levels as a consequence of the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 5 February
and is current for 6 Feb only. MUFs in the Australian region
were mildly to moderately depressed during UT day 05 February.
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. For the next
two UT days, 06-07 February, mild to moderate depressions are
likely. Further MUF depressions may happen on 08 February in
response to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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