[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 21 issued 2339 UT on 02 Feb 2021

Wed Feb 3 10:39:38 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 February. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days, 
03-05 February. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 02 February. 
The solar wind speed steadily increased from 340 km/s to 560 
km/s due to a coronal hole. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 20 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +16/-16 nT between 
00-09 UT and then +6/-6 nT for the rest of the day. Solar wind 
parameters on UT day 03 February are expected to remain elevated. 
On 04-05 February the solar wind parameters are expected to gradually 
return to nominal levels due to waning coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   34334212
      Cocos Island         9   33233201
      Darwin              13   33334212
      Townsville          14   34334212
      Learmonth           14   34334211
      Alice Springs       13   33334212
      Gingin              14   44333211
      Canberra            13   34333212
      Hobart              18   34444312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    28   34465402
      Casey               39   56654223
      Mawson              35   56634313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 1202     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible.
04 Feb     7    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 02 February due to a recurrent 
coronal hole wind stream. Quiet to storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be quiet to active on 03 February and quiet to unsettled on 
04 February then quiet on 05 February. In the SWS magnetometer 
data for 02 Feb, a weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 0352UT 
and a weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 0551UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 02 February, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate depressions. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values with some 
minor depressions for the next 3 UT days, 03 to 05 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Feb     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb     8    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 02 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate depressions. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values with some minor depressions for the 
next 3 UT days, 03 to 05 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    29200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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