[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 21 issued 2332 UT on 23 Dec 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 24 10:32:37 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for UT day 23 December. There
are currently 12 numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Solar activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days, with
a remote chance of isolated M-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. The glancing blow from
the 20 and 21 December CMEs are anticipated to arrive on UT day
24 December and early UT day 25 December, respectively. The solar
wind speed during the last 24 hours remained at moderately elevated
level and continued a gradual declining trend. The peak total
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) range was +2/-2 nT. The three day outlook for the solar
wind speed is to continue on a general declining trend, with
minor enhancements due to the arrival of the glancing blow from
the CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Cocos Island 1 01110010
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 3 22100112
Learmonth 3 21100121
Alice Springs 2 21100011
Gingin 2 21110011
Canberra 3 21110012
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11010011
Casey 19 34542223
Mawson 11 42222142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1221 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the Australian region on UT day 23 December. Unsettled to active
periods for Antarctic regions. These mildly disturbed conditions
were in response to the moderately elevated solar wind speed.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled,
with a chance of active periods over the next three days. The
active periods are in anticipation of the possible glancing blow
from the 20 and 21 December CMEs, which are expected to arrive
today and early UT day 25 December, respectively.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 24-26
December with a small chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 22
December and is current for 23-25 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region for 23 December ranged from near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced by 15-30%. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced levels due
to above average levels of solar ionising flux. Small chance
of shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 14.5 p/cc Temp: 556000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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