[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 21 issued 2332 UT on 23 Dec 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 24 10:32:37 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low for UT day 23 December. There 
are currently 12 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Solar activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days, with 
a remote chance of isolated M-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. The glancing blow from 
the 20 and 21 December CMEs are anticipated to arrive on UT day 
24 December and early UT day 25 December, respectively. The solar 
wind speed during the last 24 hours remained at moderately elevated 
level and continued a gradual declining trend. The peak total 
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) range was +2/-2 nT. The three day outlook for the solar 
wind speed is to continue on a general declining trend, with 
minor enhancements due to the arrival of the glancing blow from 
the CMEs.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110011
      Cocos Island         1   01110010
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           3   22100112
      Learmonth            3   21100121
      Alice Springs        2   21100011
      Gingin               2   21110011
      Canberra             3   21110012
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11010011
      Casey               19   34542223
      Mawson              11   42222142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1221 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 23 December. Unsettled to active 
periods for Antarctic regions. These mildly disturbed conditions 
were in response to the moderately elevated solar wind speed. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, 
with a chance of active periods over the next three days. The 
active periods are in anticipation of the possible glancing blow 
from the 20 and 21 December CMEs, which are expected to arrive 
today and early UT day 25 December, respectively.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 24-26 
December with a small chance of shortwave fadeouts.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Dec    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec    50    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 22 
December and is current for 23-25 Dec. MUFs in the Australian 
region for 23 December ranged from near predicted monthly values 
to slightly enhanced by 15-30%. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced levels due 
to above average levels of solar ionising flux. Small chance 
of shortwave fadeouts.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:   14.5 p/cc  Temp:   556000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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