[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 21 issued 2333 UT on 21 Dec 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 22 10:33:33 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0750UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1144UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 136/90 134/88 134/88
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate for UT day 21 December,
with two M-class flares and multiple C-class flares. The M-class
flares were from Region 2961, which is currently located near
the East limb (S16E80) and rotating towards the solar centre.
There are currently 12 numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the
next 3 days, with a chance of isolated M-class flares. During
the last 24-hours, two CMEs were observed. The first CME was
observed erupting at 21/1745 UT from near S30E40 and is not likely
to impact the Earth. The second CME eruption start at 21/1900
from S10W05, is currently being modelled. Based on the location
of the second CME, it is likely to impact the Earth. The solar
wind speed during the last 24 hours was at moderately elevated
level and ranged from 570 to 630 km/s, in response to the coronal
hole effects. The peak total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near
5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5/-5 nT. The two
day outlook (UT day 22 and 23 December) is for solar wind speed
to decline gradually, though remain elevated, as the coronal
hole effect wanes. From late UT day 23 December, the solar wind
may enhance again due to the anticipated arrival of the 20 December
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 31213121
Cocos Island 6 31212220
Darwin 5 21212121
Townsville 6 32212121
Learmonth 8 32213131
Alice Springs 6 21213121
Gingin 7 31213121
Canberra 6 21213121
Hobart 7 31213121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 32204120
Casey 26 54633232
Mawson 22 44334352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 11 3323 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 20 December
and is current for 20-22 Dec. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed for the Australian region on UT day
21 December. Unsettled to a isolated storm period for Antarctic
regions. These disturbed conditions were in response to the moderately
elevated solar wind speed associated with the coronal hole effect.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
with possible isolated active periods for 22 and 23 December.
The glancing blow from the 20 December CME associated with the
M-class flare is expected to cause some active periods from late
UT day 23 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 22-24
December with shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 20 December
and is current for 20-22 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region for
21 December ranged from near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced by 20% for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced levels to due above average levels of solar ionising
flux. Shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 378000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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