[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 1 10:31:00 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              88/32              86/29

COMMENT: On UT day 30 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently five numbered regions on the visible solar 
disc, the largest being region 2900 (S26W59 at 30/22:35UT). Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 01 to 03 
December. A filament erupted from the southern hemisphere between 
about 0730-1030 UT on 29 November, producing a CME which is expected 
to give a glancing blow to the Earth in the latter half of 02 
December. On UT day 30 November, until around 13.30 UT, the solar 
wind speed remained between 330 km/s and 360 km/s, the total 
IMB (Bt) stayed stable between 2 nT and 3 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) remained close to the normal value. After 13.30 UT, 
the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase to 460 km/s, Bt 
increased to 15 nT and Bz varied in the range +8/-15 nT. This 
seems consistent with the expected coronal hole effect as per 
yesterday's forecast. This coronal hole effect may keep the solar 
wind stream strengthened for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 
December. A possible glancing blow from a CME (observed on UT 
day 29 November) may further strengthen the solar wind stream 
late on UT day 02 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   00101234
      Cocos Island         4   00101133
      Darwin               6   11101233
      Townsville           7   10101234
      Learmonth            7   00102234
      Alice Springs        6   00101234
      Gingin               6   10101134
      Canberra             6   00100134
      Hobart               5   01100124    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   00000023
      Casey               13   34221134
      Mawson              15   22101236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3310 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    10    Quiet to active
02 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 30 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian and the Antarctic regions were quiet to active. Antarctic 
region recorded one storm period too. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to active on UT day 01 December and 
unsettled to active on 02 and 03 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with occasional 
mild degradations are expected on UT day 01December. Minor to 
moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected on UT 
days 02 and 03 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec    10    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec    10    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 November 
were near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly 
depressed on UT days 01 to 03 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    90100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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