[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 21 issued 2343 UT on 24 Apr 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 25 09:43:38 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 April with a C2
flare from region 2817(on the west Limb) at 23/2312UT. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk, ARs
2816, 2818,2819 and 2820. AR2816 showed signs of decay wile AR
2820 has increased rapidly in area and magnetic complexity(now
a beta-gamma magnetic class), it has the potential for large
flares over the next few days. The two other regions remained
stable and quiet. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available images. Solar activity is expected to be low for the
next three UT days, 25-27 April with a chance of an M-class flare
from region 2820. On UT day 24 April, the solar wind speed remained
slightly enhanced ~ 400 Km/s due to continued effects from a
negative polarity Equatorial coronal hole until the arrival of
the anticipated CME from 22 April at 24/2220UT, when it jumped
to 500km/s, along with a solar wind shock. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Bz component strengthened following the shock.
Bz is currently sustaining a southward orientation at -10nT.
These enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue
over the UT day 25 as the CME passes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 23231012
Cocos Island 4 22211002
Darwin 7 23231012
Townsville 7 23231012
Learmonth 10 33332112
Alice Springs 8 33231012
Gingin 7 3223210-
Canberra 7 23231012
Hobart 9 23242112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 18 33363201
Casey 13 43332223
Mawson 32 54443246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 3223 1324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 30 Active to Minor Storm
26 Apr 20 Active
27 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 24 April and
is current for 26 Apr only. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 24 April. Quiet
to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The arrival
of the CME late in the UT day 24 April will increase geomagnetic
conditions over the UT day 25 April. Expect active to minor storm
conditions with possible cases of major storm conditions at higher
latitudes today 25 April. Active levels with an isolated minor
storm period for 26 April as CME effects persist.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
26 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
27 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation in HF propagation conditions are
possible on UT days 25-27 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr -5 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
26 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 24 April
and is current for 25-27 Apr. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 24 April were mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT days 25-27 April
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 63500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list