[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 20 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 April. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk, AR
2815, AR 2816, and AR 2817. Solar activity is expected to be
very low to low for the next three UT days, 20-22 April. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed. On UT day 19 April, the solar wind
speed varied mostly between 560 km/s and 660 km/s in response
to the effects of the Southern polar coronal hole with extension
into the low latitudes, the IMF (Bt) range was 3 to 7 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6/-6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to gradually decrease through UT day 20 April due
to the waning of the coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 23343222
Cocos Island 8 22232222
Darwin 10 23333122
Townsville 13 23343223
Learmonth 15 23343333
Alice Springs 13 23343223
Gingin 16 3234----
Canberra 12 23343222
Hobart 17 23453322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 42 34675322
Casey 20 44343243
Mawson 55 56555366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 71 (Active)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 3443 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
21 Apr 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
22 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 19 April. Quiet to storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed elevated
geomagnetic activity is due to the coronal hole effects. On UT
day 20 April, geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated active periods
due to the continued coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions on 21 April and quiet conditions on 22 April are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected.
Periods of minor degradations may be observed on UT day 20 April
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 22 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mostly near predicted
monthly levels on UT day 18 April. Mild enhancements were observed
in the Northern Australian region during local night. Minor to
mild MUFs depressions are possible on UT day 20 April due to
some possible rise in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 455000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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