[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 13 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 April. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2814(S24E07).
This region produced a B8 flare at 12/1952UT. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three days, 13-15 April
with a chance of a C-class flare. Several prominences were observed
in SDO 304 images on the SE limb, may have been the origin of
two CMEs around 11/2026 and 12/1012UT, not considered to be geoeffective.
No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available images.
On 12 April, the solar wind speed peaked at 390 km/s, with a
peak total IMF (Bt) of 6 nT and a north-south IMF (Bz) range
of +/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to vary between
its background and slightly enhanced levels over the next three
days, 13-15 April due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11111310
Cocos Island 3 11110300
Darwin 3 21111201
Townsville 3 11111210
Learmonth 5 21121311
Alice Springs 2 11021200
Gingin 4 21110310
Canberra 2 10010210
Hobart 3 10111310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00021200
Casey 9 33321311
Mawson 12 21222434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Apr 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12 April. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are predicted
for 13-15 April. Unsettled periods are possible later on 13 April
and into 14 April due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 13-15 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mostly near predicted
monthly levels on UT day 12 April. Similar MUFs conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list