[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 11 09:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 April. One
sunspot (Axx/alpha) has developed at S24E35. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next three days, 11-13 April.
An erupting prominence on the west limb near N18 at 0158 UT in
SDO 304 images, may have been the origin of a weak CME. Modelling
suggests no impact at Earth. On 10 April, the solar wind speed
peaked at 386 km/s, with a peak total IMF (Bt) of 7 nT and a
north-south IMF (Bz) range of +4/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be mildly elevated on 11 April due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream. Nominal wind conditions are expected
on 12-13 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 00010202
Cocos Island 1 01000102
Darwin 2 10010202
Townsville 2 01021201
Learmonth 2 01010202
Alice Springs 1 00010201
Gingin 2 00010202
Canberra 1 00010201
Hobart 2 00020201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00011200
Casey 6 13211212
Mawson 10 22111225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Slight chance of an isolated
active period.
12 Apr 7 Quiet
13 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 10 April. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 11 April due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream;
there is a slight chance of an isolated active period. Quiet
conditions are predicted for 12-13 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions are expected on 11 April.
Normal conditions likely on 12-13 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some depressions to around 25% in MUFs over the northern
Australian region, recovering after about 1300 UT. Sporadic E
observed at Darwin 0500-0800 UT. Spread F observed at Hobart
0800-1800 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values for the next three days, 11-13 April, with some mild depressions,
mostly in the first half of the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 78900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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