[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 8 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 April. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
08-10 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 07 April,
the solar wind speed range was initially near its background
level till 07/1200 UT and then gradually increased to 520 km/s.
The current solar wind speed is near 440 km/s. This mild enhancement
was caused by a small coronal hole. The peak total IMF (Bt) of
15 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +9/-9 nT was observed
during the last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 08 April)
is for the solar wind speed to gradually decline towards its
background level as the coronal hole effect wanes. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels
on UT day 09 and 10 April, with mild enhancements possible due
to small patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 12234431
Cocos Island 9 12233330
Darwin 12 12234421
Townsville 13 12334422
Learmonth 18 12235531
Alice Springs 15 12235431
Gingin 19 11235541
Canberra 12 12234422
Hobart 12 12234422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 25 01355621
Casey 15 33333432
Mawson 18 33244441
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active conditions were observed in the
Australian and southern high latitude regions on UT day 07 April
in response to the formation of corotation interaction region
associated with the small coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for today, 08 April, due to coronal hole effects.
If there is embedded southward IMF in the solar wind, active
conditions may ensue. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for
the subsequent two UT days (09-10 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 08-10 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions varied mostly between
near predicted monthly levels and mildly depressed levels on
UT day 07 April. Similar MUF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 08-10 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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