[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 April. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
06-08 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 05 April,
the solar wind speed range was 300-340 km/s, with a peak total
IMF (Bt) of 9 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +8/-8 nT.
The IMF Bz was predominantly southward from 05/1000 UT to 05/1500
UT. On 06 and 07 April, solar wind speed is expected to vary
between its background and mildly elevated levels; the mild enhancements
are due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 01123100
Cocos Island 2 01122100
Darwin 4 01123101
Townsville 4 01123111
Learmonth 4 00123200
Alice Springs 4 01123101
Gingin 4 22122100
Canberra 3 00123000
Hobart 3 01123100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00114000
Casey 7 23323100
Mawson 6 31112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 5 Quiet
08 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian and
southern high latitudes regions on UT day 05 April. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for today (UT day 06 April).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected from UT 07 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 06-08 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions varied mostly between
near predicted monthly levels and moderately depressed levels
on UT day 05 April. Similar MUFs conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 06-08 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 19100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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