[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 3 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 April. There 
is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR2812; this region 
remains spotless. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three days, 
03-05 April. On 02 April, the solar wind speed range was 350-400 
km/s, with a peak total IMF (Bt) of 9 nT, and a north-south IMF 
(Bz) range of +6/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters are likely to be 
mildly elevated on 03-05 April due to weak coronal hole effects. 
There is the chance of an impact from the 30 March CME on 04 
April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11011330
      Cocos Island         3   01001320
      Darwin               4   11001321
      Townsville           5   11011331
      Learmonth            5   11011330
      Alice Springs        4   11001321
      Gingin               6   01011430
      Canberra             5   01012330
      Hobart               5   11012330    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     5   01012420
      Casey               13   34421231
      Mawson              13   23212443

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2321 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 02 April, with quiet to active 
levels observed at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 03 to 05 April due to weak coronal 
hole effects. The weak 30 March CME may arrive on 04 April. If 
there is embedded southward IMF in the solar wind, active conditions 
may ensue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 03-05 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some MUF depressions to about 20% were observed on UT 
day 02 April. Sporadic E was observed at several sites. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 03-05 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    84800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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