[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 1 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 March. AR2811
(N23W71) and AR2812 (N20W48) remain plage regions. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three days, 01-03 April.
H-alpha and SDO 304 images show a filament eruption near the
west limb at N35 around 0155 UT. A CME is first visible in SOHO
and STEREO A images at 0436 UT. The 30/1623 UT CME was modelled
with low confidence and is expected to miss Earth. If any impact
occurs, it is likely to be weak and may arrive late 03 April.
On 31 March, solar wind parameters remained under the influence
of a weak coronal hole wind stream, with a speed range of 332-398
km/s, a peak total IMF (Bt) of 9 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz)
range of +4/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters are likely to remain
mildly elevated on 01-03 April due to weak coronal hole wind
streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21223311
Darwin 5 21212301
Townsville 7 21213312
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 5 11212311
Gingin 8 21223322
Canberra 6 11223301
Hobart 7 11223311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 12334410
Casey 9 23231322
Mawson 31 53342536
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31 March, with quiet to major storm levels observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected 01 to 03 April due to recurrent weak coronal hole effects.
There is the chance of an isolated active period on 02 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions observed on 31 March, mostly in
the first half of the period. Mostly normal conditions are expected
01-03 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional MUF depressions to about 20% were observed
to 09 UT on UT day, 31 March. Spread F was observed at Hobart
09-19 UT. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville 10-16 UT and
Darwin 19-21 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on 01-03 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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