[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Sep 2020

Thu Sep 24 09:31:11 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 September. 
Spot region SN12 near N30E64 was last magnetically classified 
as a beta group. SDO 304 images show a filament lifting at 1657 
UT from near N48E23. No earthward directed CMEs were visible 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar wind parameters became 
mildly disturbed with speed increasing from 350 km/s to peak 
at 469 km/s at 2131 UT. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2 to 9 nT, 
peaking at 1053 UT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
between +4 and -9 nT. There were extended periods of southward 
deviation from about 0540 UT. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected 24 to 26 September. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be moderately elevated 24 to 26 September in response to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223222
      Cocos Island         8   12123232
      Darwin               7   12223222
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth           10   22224232
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Gingin               9   21124232
      Canberra             6   11223122
      Hobart              10   12234222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    14   01345222
      Casey               12   33323133
      Mawson              36   32233376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2222 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active. Chance of isolated minor 
                storm period.
25 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active. Chance of isolated minor 
                storm period.
26 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in 
the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 23 September. 
Some active to storm periods occurred in the latter half of the 
day. Global conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled with 
isolated active periods 24 to 25 September in response to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
24 to 26 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Sep     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressions to 25% at Darwin 01, 04-05 UT.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 23 September. 
Spread F observed at Hobart 10-14 UT. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
to mildly enhanced 24 to 26 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    37100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.