[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 16 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 15 September.
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the
visible disc. No returning regions expected. No CMEs were visible
in the available coronagraph images. Through UT day 15 September,
the solar wind speed varied between 350 km/s and 400 km/s, the
total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 6 nT, the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) in the range +3/-4 nT and the solar wind particle
density between 3 and 8 ppcc. Very low solar activity is predicted
for UT days 16 to 18 September. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be mostly near background levels over the next three UT days
with the possibility of minor enhancements on UT days 16 and/or
17 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Cocos Island 2 21110010
Darwin 2 12110101
Townsville 3 22110011
Learmonth 2 21110110
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Gingin 3 21120011
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 2 11120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 00131000
Mawson 20 52232154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
17 Sep 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
18 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 15 September
with two periods of minor storm levels at Mawson station. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during UT days 16
to 18 September with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods
on 16 and/or 17 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced on UT day 15 September. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 16 to 18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day
15 September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 16 to 18 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 91600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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