[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 9 09:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 09-11 September. A CME first observed in
the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 07/1748 UT is most
likely a far-side event and therefore will not impact Earth.
No other CMEs were observed in the coronagraph imagery. During
08 September, the solar wind speed was near its background levels,
varying in the range 300-330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 1-5 nT and
+2/-3 nT, respectively. During the next three UT days, 09-11
September, the solar wind speed is expected to remain near its
background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 10000210
Cocos Island 1 00100110
Darwin 1 10110101
Townsville 3 11110211
Learmonth 2 11010210
Alice Springs 1 10000200
Gingin 1 10000210
Canberra 1 01000200
Hobart 1 10000200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Mawson 7 22321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1121 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: During UT day 08 September, geomagnetic conditions were
quiet in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated
unsettled periods during the next three UT days, 09-11 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 08 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions
were observed over the Cocos Island region during the local day.
Sporadic E and Spread F were observed over some sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 09-11 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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