[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 31 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 1 09:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 01-03 September. H-Alpha imagery observed a filament
lifting off NE quadrant around 30/2322UT. An associated CME was
observed in LASCO imagery starting 31/0212UT. This event will
be further analysed for any Earth directed component. An other
filament structure near central meridian is currently monitored
for any lift off. On 31 August, the solar wind speed was enhanced
reaching 600 km/s at 31/0900UT. This was in response to high
speed streams emanating from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
mostly in the ranges 2-8 nT and +/-6 nT, respectively. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at these enhanced levels today
01 September as the coronal hole effects persist. The solar wind
speed is expected to decline from UT day 02 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 23253333
Cocos Island 10 22242322
Darwin 11 23243222
Townsville 14 23343233
Learmonth 18 22353433
Alice Springs 16 22253333
Gingin 15 22243433
Canberra 14 23253222
Hobart 16 23254322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 29 23274422
Casey 15 33333333
Mawson 59 56553575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2421 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of an isolated
Minor Storm period.
02 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 31 August and
is current for 1 Sep only. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet
to minor storm levels in the Australian region with isolated
major storm periods in the Antarctic region on UT day 31 August.
These disturbed geomagnetic condition were in response to coronal
hole effects. On 01 September,the global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to active with a chance of an
isolated minor storm period as the high solar wind streams associated
with coronal hole are expected to persist. Mostly quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected with possible isolated active periods
on the subsequent UT days, 02-03 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 01-03 September. Some degradations
may be observed in mid to high latitude regions on 01-02 September
due to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 31
August. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 01-03 September. Some MUF degradations may
be observed on UT days 01-02 September in response to the recent
increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 255000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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