[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 20 10:31:16 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 19 October
and expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT day (20 to 22
October) with a small possibility of C-class activity. A weak
shock was observed in the solar wind at 1346UT on 19 Oct. This
may be due to a glancing blow from the CME observed on 15 October.
On UT day 19 October until around 13.40 UT the solar wind speed
was between 330 and 380 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 3 and
6 nT, IMF Bz in the range +5/-5 nT and solar wind particle density
between 4 and 11 ppcc. A weak shock at 13.46 UT raised the solar
wind speed up to around 440 km/s, Bt to 9 nT and the solar wind
particle density to 17 ppcc. The effect of this shock on the
solar wind parameters is expected to diminish within the next
half a day or so, but the effect of a coronal hole may start
strengthening the solar wind parameters from late hours on UT
day 20 October. Minor to moderate enhancements in solar wind
parameters are expected for UT day 21 and 22 October due to the
effect of this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 12223222
Cocos Island 5 01213211
Darwin 7 22213212
Townsville 7 12223222
Learmonth 7 12223222
Alice Springs 7 12223222
Gingin 7 12223222
Canberra 7 11233121
Hobart 7 12233121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 01144110
Casey 11 33422122
Mawson 13 23122235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
22 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 18 October, mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian and the Antarctic
region. Global conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to
unsettled on UT day 20 October and unsettled to active on 21
and 22 October due to coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced
on UT day 19 October. Periods of minor MUF depressions were also
observed in some low latitude areas. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values during UT days 20 to 22
October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct -6 Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct -6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 19 October.
Periods of minor MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern
areas. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values during UT days 20 to 22 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 36800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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