[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 18 10:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 October. Spot
region 2776 (S12E31) is currently classified as a Cao/beta group.
No CMEs were observed in available images. The solar wind has
been at background levels, peaking at 334 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) range was 1-9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was -4/+6 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity
are expected 18-20 October. Previously numbered region 2773 may
return on 18 October. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mostly near background levels 18-19 October. The passage of a
southern hemisphere coronal hole and possibly a weak CME are
expected to produce mild enhancements in the solar wind on 20
October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112012
Cocos Island 2 11101011
Darwin 4 12112021
Townsville 6 22122122
Learmonth 5 12122112
Alice Springs 4 12112012
Gingin 3 12111111
Canberra 4 12211012
Hobart 4 13211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 12410001
Casey 7 33221112
Mawson 6 23221012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 7 Quiet
19 Oct 7 Quiet
20 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled. An isolated active period
is possible.
COMMENT: On UT day 17 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on 18-19 October. The passage of a coronal
hole and possibly a weak CME are expected to increase activity
on 20 October; an isolated active period is possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 18-20 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 17 October.
Sporadic E observed at Brisbane 12-14, 23 UT, Townsville 00,
11-13 UT and Canberra 02-04 UT. Spread F observed at Hobart 13-19
UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on 18-20 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 36100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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