[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 October. There
are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 October. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During 14 October, the solar wind speed
was near its background levels, 260-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied in the range 3-6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) was mostly positive (northward) during the last 24 hours.
During the next three UT days, 15-17 October, the solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 5 33200001
Mawson 3 11000031
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 5 Quiet
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 15-17 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly levels on UT day 14 October. Mildly enhanced
MUFs were observed mostly in the Southern Australian region during
local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15-17 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 14600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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