[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 3 09:31:30 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 September. 
No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
data. Through UT day 02 October ,the solar wind speed varied 
between 460 and 530 km/s while showing a gradual declining trend, 
the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 4 nT, the IMF north-south 
component (Bz) varied in the range +3/-3 nT and the solar wind 
particle density between 6 and 9 ppcc. Very low solar activity 
is expected for the next three UT days, 02 to 05 October. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to continue to settle down to more 
nominal values as the influence of the coronal hole further wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11132211
      Cocos Island         3   11122110
      Darwin               6   11133111
      Townsville           8   12233222
      Learmonth            7   22132221
      Alice Springs        6   11133211
      Gingin               7   21042221
      Canberra             5   11132211
      Hobart               6   11232211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    13   11254311
      Casey               15   35332222
      Mawson              36   44323375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   2114 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct     7    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct     5    Quiet
05 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 01 October. Mostly quiet to 
active levels occurred in the Antarctic region with two minor 
storm and 1 major storm period recorded. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three 
UT days, 03 to 05 October with the possibility of some unsettled 
periods and isolated active periods on 03 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values to 
about 15% depressed on UT day 02 October. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values on UT days 03 to 05 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Oct   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct    -8    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted 
monthly values to about 15% depressed on UT day 02 October. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 03 to 05 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   274000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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