[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 29 10:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 106/55
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 November with four
low intensity C-class flares. Most of the flares were from active
region 2786, which is currently located near the solar centre
(S19E15). The largest flare was C2.9, peaking at 28/1335 UT.
There are currently 5 numbered regions on the visible disk; four
of them were mostly quiet on 28 November. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar activity
is expected to be mostly low for the next three UT days, 29 November
- 01 December, with a high chance of more C-class flares and
a small chance of M-class flares from region 2786. During the
last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was steady and at mildly
enhanced levels, varying in the range 380-460 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz) varied in the ranges
2-6 nT and +3/-5 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed is expected
to gradually decline to its nominal levels today, UT day 29 November.
Mostly nominal solar wind speed is expected for the subsequent
two UT days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21212111
Cocos Island 4 21212111
Darwin 3 21112011
Townsville 5 21212022
Learmonth 5 21222111
Alice Springs 3 21112011
Gingin 5 21222111
Canberra 4 22111021
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 23232111
Casey 18 45422232
Mawson 20 54323243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1322 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 5 Quiet
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region on 28 November. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for 29 November - 01 December. The 3-day geomagnetic
forecasts may change if the ongoing flaring activity does trigger
a fast-moving CME towards earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 29 November - 01 December. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible over the next three UT days because there
is a chance that AR 2786 will produce an M-class flare.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 27
November and is current for 27-29 Nov. MUFs in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
28 November. Blanketing sporadic E was observed at some sites.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 29 November
- 01 December. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next
three days because there is a chance that AR 2786 will produce
an M-class flare.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 65200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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