[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Nov 2020

Mon Nov 23 10:31:48 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              92/37              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 November. Three 
C flares occurred, the largest, a C3.3. New spot region AR 2785 
(S23E76) was the source of this and another flare and is an Hsx/alpha 
group. AR 2783 (S22E03) maintains its Hsx/alpha classification. 
AR 2784 (N34E16) class is Bxo/beta and has decayed. Solar activity 
is expected to be low. A CME was observed in STEREO A images 
at 0324 UT and appears faint but broad in LASCO C3. This may 
be related to filament activity at S30E08 at 21/1540 UT. The 
solar wind speed range was 485-649 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) 
was 11 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +8/-10 nT, predominantly 
southward. The solar wind speed is expected to be moderately 
enhanced on 23 Nov due to continuing coronal hole effects. Coronal 
hole effects should begin to wane on 24 Nov. There remains the 
chance of a weak CME impact on 23 or 24 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   23344332
      Cocos Island        13   23334322
      Darwin              13   23334322
      Townsville          16   23344332
      Learmonth           20   33345333
      Alice Springs       15   33334332
      Gingin              22   33345433
      Canberra            17   24344332
      Hobart              20   24345332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    39   33666432
      Casey               31   46544333
      Mawson              64   56555666

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1210 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov    14    Quiet to Active
24 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to minor storm geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region. Quiet to major storm conditions were 
observed in the southern high latitude region on UT day 22 November. 
Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23 Nov due to continuing 
coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair conditions 23 to 25 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Nov    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate 
                depressions at times.
24 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 22 November. Sporadic E observed 
at Brisbane, Canberra, Sydney, Perth and Norfolk Is. during night 
hours and eastern locations 21-23 UT, at times blanketing. Spread 
F observed at Hobart 12-19 UT. Minor to moderate depressions 
possible at times 23-24 Nov. Sporadic E possible at times.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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