[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 18 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 November. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2783
(S22E69) and 2782 (S32W14). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next three UT days, 18-20 November. On
UT day 17 November, the solar wind speed was near its nominal
levels, varying in the range 280-320 km/s. The current solar
wind speed is near 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 1 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) range was mostly +3/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near its nominal levels for the next two UT days, 18-19
November. The solar wind speed is expected to enhance on UT day
20 November due to approaching patchy equatorial coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10011001
Cocos Island 2 -2121000
Darwin 1 10011001
Townsville 1 10111001
Learmonth 2 10011002
Alice Springs 1 11011001
Gingin 2 10011002
Canberra 1 00011001
Hobart 1 00021001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 5 32122001
Mawson 4 20112003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17 November. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the
next two UT days, 18-19 November. On UT day 20 November, mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to the possible
arrival of the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal and at times fair HF propagation conditions
are expected during the next three UT days, 18-20 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 17 November. Sporadic
E blanketing and spread F were observed at some sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mildly depressed to
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 18-20
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 14000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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